Tariffs have become a bigger issue for the restaurant industry in 2025 as operators track rising import costs across food categories that depend on global supply chains. For diners in the U.S., that could mean higher prices for menu items built around imported staples like coffee, shrimp, olive oil, and avocados. Restaurant companies including Chipotle, Starbucks, Darden Restaurants, and independent sushi and seafood operators have all discussed food-cost pressure tied to sourcing, trade policy, or imported ingredients in recent public comments and earnings updates.
Major restaurant ingredients are directly exposed
Chipotle Mexican Grill said on its February 2025 earnings call that roughly half of its avocados typically come from Mexico, one of the clearest examples of how tariffs can flow straight into restaurant food costs. The company said it has some supply diversification, but executives confirmed that any import duty on Mexican produce would raise expense pressure on a core ingredient used across its U.S. restaurants.
Starbucks has also said coffee cost volatility remains a major input issue, and coffee imported from Latin America is central to its supply chain. While the company has not tied a specific menu increase to one tariff action, its public filings and earnings commentary have repeatedly identified coffee, freight, and green coffee sourcing as meaningful cost lines that can affect pricing decisions over time.
Seafood is another category to watch. Darden Restaurants, the parent of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, has told investors in quarterly filings that food commodities remain a variable cost, while U.S. sushi chains and independent seafood restaurants rely heavily on imported shrimp, tuna, and salmon, much of it sourced from Asia and Latin America.
What customers may notice around the U.S.
The immediate impact is national, not limited to one city or state, because restaurant supply contracts often cover hundreds or thousands of locations. Chipotle operates more than 3,500 restaurants in North America, while Starbucks has more than 16,000 U.S. stores, giving even small ingredient cost changes broad reach once contracts reset, according to company reports filed in 2025.
What is not yet known is exactly which menu items will change first or by how much at specific chains. The companies have not released full item-by-item pricing plans tied only to tariffs, and many operators use hedging, long-term supplier contracts, or substitute sourcing to delay immediate increases.
For customers, the clearest near-term risk is in foods that have few easy domestic replacements. Avocado-heavy burritos, imported coffee drinks, sushi rolls, shrimp plates, and pasta dishes finished with imported olive oil or cheese are among the categories most exposed when border costs rise, according to restaurant earnings calls and trade group comments published in early 2025.
Why tariffs matter more to restaurants right now
The reason tariffs matter so much in 2025 is that many restaurant operators are already managing thin margins after several years of inflation. The National Restaurant Association said in its 2025 industry outlook that food, labor, and occupancy costs remain elevated, leaving less room for chains and independents to absorb new supply costs without adjusting menu prices.
Trade policy adds to that pressure because restaurants cannot quickly relocate farms, fisheries, or coffee-growing regions. The U.S. depends heavily on imports for products such as coffee, shrimp, and olive oil, and the American Farm Bureau Federation and multiple commodity groups have warned in 2025 that tariffs can raise costs for businesses long before supply chains can adjust.
For diners, that means price movement may show up unevenly rather than in one big jump. Some chains may hold prices steady for a quarter, while others may narrow promotions or make small increases on imported-ingredient dishes first, based on company earnings guidance and supplier contracts already in place during 2025.
