Global food supplies remain tightly linked through shipping lanes, grain exports, and fertilizer markets. A May 2024 analysis narrowed that big picture to a clearer list of countries that would likely run short first if a worldwide famine disrupted imports.
Which countries are identified as the most exposed
The countries most often identified as highly exposed are import-dependent states in the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Based on food import reliance tracked by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and World Bank data, countries such as Yemen, Lebanon, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Jordan, Libya, Mauritania, Tunisia, and Sudan stand out.
Small island states are also vulnerable because geography limits cropland and storage. Haiti in the Caribbean and Maldives in South Asia are frequently cited in food security research because both rely heavily on imported staples, and Haiti faced acute hunger affecting more than 4 million people in recent assessments from the World Food Programme.
Several Gulf countries also depend on imports for most of their calories because of water limits and low arable land. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman have high purchasing power, but food security analysts note that import dependence still creates risk if shipping or global supply chains break down at scale.
Why these countries would feel a famine first
The biggest factor is import dependence. According to the FAO and World Bank indicators, countries that buy large shares of their wheat, corn, or rice from abroad can run into trouble quickly when exports are restricted, freight prices rise, or conflict disrupts ports, as happened after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
A second factor is limited domestic farming capacity. In countries such as Yemen, Jordan, and Djibouti, low rainfall, water scarcity, and small amounts of arable land limit how much food can be grown locally, according to the World Bank and regional food security reports.
Conflict makes the risk worse. Sudan’s civil war, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and instability in Somalia have all damaged transport, markets, and farming, reducing access to food even before any broader global famine scenario, according to United Nations agencies in 2023 and 2024.
What this means and what is still unknown
For US readers, the main point is that famine risk is not spread evenly across the globe. Countries with strong farm sectors such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada generally have larger grain output and export capacity, while countries with limited farmland or heavy import dependence have less cushion if trade fails.
Still, there is no single official master list of which country would run out first in an actual global famine. Outcomes would depend on the trigger, whether it was crop disease, war, climate shocks, or export bans, and on each country’s reserves, aid access, and government response, according to the World Food Programme.
What is clear from current data is that places already under food stress would be hit first. Countries repeatedly flagged by major agencies include Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Haiti, Lebanon, Djibouti, Eritrea, Libya, Jordan, and Mauritania, all of which combine at least two known risks: import reliance, conflict, poverty, or weak domestic production.
