An estimated $84 trillion is expected to pass from older Americans to heirs and charities through 2045, according to Cerulli Associates, and that long runway is becoming a consumer story as much as a finance one. In grocery aisles across the U.S., the transfer is starting to show up in spending patterns at chains including Walmart, Costco and Whole Foods Market.
A historic wealth shift is entering the checkout lane
Cerulli Associates said in a January 18, 2022 report that about $84.4 trillion will transfer from older generations through 2045, with roughly $72.6 trillion expected to go to heirs. That figure has become a key reference point for retailers, banks and consumer brands because it points to a large change in who controls household budgets over the next two decades.
Public companies are not reporting a line item called “inheritance grocery effect,” and no major chain has released a national count tying food purchases directly to inherited assets. What is confirmed is that younger adult households are gaining spending power while food retailers are watching shifts in basket mix, according to earnings calls and market research tracked by Circana and Numerator in 2024 and 2025.
That matters because grocery spending is one of the most frequent budget decisions in the country. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Americans spent about 11.2% of disposable personal income on food in 2023, including food at home and away from home, which gives retailers a large, recurring way to see wealth changes play out.
The shift looks different at Walmart, Costco and Whole Foods
At Walmart, executives said in 2024 earnings commentary that higher-income households were contributing more to grocery share gains, a notable change for the nation’s largest grocer. The company also said convenience, delivery and store pickup were helping bring in customers with wider income ranges, suggesting that who shops Walmart for food is broadening as household finances change.
Costco has kept benefiting from shoppers who are willing to pay upfront membership fees for value on larger baskets. In recent earnings updates, Costco said sales in fresh foods and nonfoods remained solid, and its model still leans toward customers with the room and cash flow to buy in bulk, which can fit households receiving family financial support or larger transfers, though Costco has not tied that trend specifically to inherited wealth.
Amazon’s Whole Foods Market sits at a different point in the market, with stronger exposure to premium and organic purchases. Circana and retailer commentary have shown that even with inflation still affecting staples in 2024, shoppers with more financial flexibility were more likely to keep spending on prepared foods, specialty items and convenience, while other households traded down into lower-cost store brands.
What shoppers should expect next from food brands and retailers
For shoppers, the clearest near-term effect is not a single product but a wider split in the same store. Numerator and Circana have both documented a market where some households continue buying private-label basics to manage prices, while others spend more on premium produce, functional beverages, better-for-you snacks and ready-to-eat meals.
That split can happen within one family and one zip code. Federal Reserve data from the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances showed wealth remains heavily concentrated among older Americans, and as those assets move unevenly, grocers are likely to keep building assortments for both value-driven and premium shoppers rather than betting on one national consumer profile.
Retailers have not published a full state-by-state map showing where inherited wealth is changing grocery baskets first, and there is no public list of brands seeing the biggest inheritance-driven lift. What companies are saying now is more practical: Walmart continues to emphasize value and convenience, Costco continues to focus on bulk savings and membership loyalty, and Whole Foods continues to position around quality and prepared foods as U.S. grocery spending stays under pressure from prices.
